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How could the UK be low carbon by 2050?

Options, Choices, Actions - Updated 2018

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Options, Choices, Actions - Updated 2018

Clockwork Graphic

Key points

  • Economic growth powered by services and increased industrial output from value-added sectors.
  • Emissions reduction can be achieved through electrification of heat and transport.
  • 10m existing homes undergo whole house retrofits to improve thermal performance by 20-30%.
  • Natural gas rapidly adopted as a transitional fuel for HDVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles the preferred low carbon alternative for consumers.
  • Natural gas remains a major fuel for industrial energy use.
  • Industry and power are early adopters of hydrogen.
  • Majority of electricity delivered by a combination of wind and nuclear.

Clockwork Electricity Capacity (Gw)

Clockwork Electricity Capacity  (Gw)

Clockwork Electricity Generation (TWh)

Clockwork Electricity Generation (TWh)
Patchwork Graphic

Key points

  • Economic growth is fuelled by innovation.
  • Limited potential for negative emissions meaning a more comprehensive reduction of gross emissions is required.
  • Electric systems provide over 70% of space heat by 2050.
  • Sales of internal combustion engine vehicles peak in 2020 – market shifts towards plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and pure battery electric vehicles – requiring substantial upgrades to electricity networks.
  • By 2050 overall energy use for industry falls by 30% relative to today.
  • Industry adopts hydrogen early on.
  • Wind energy is the dominant electricity generation source – but the Patchwork18 electricity system can’t be fully decarbonised until after 2040.

Patchwork Electricity Capacity (Gw)

Patchwork Electricity Capacity (Gw)

Patchwork Electricity Generation (Twh)

Patchwork Electricity Generation (Twh)

The Future

Centrally Driven
Centrally driven or the evolution of distinct energy strategies?
Posted 02 Oct 2018
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Heating Of Homes
How will we heat our homes in 2050 and what will drive the changes?
Posted 05 Oct 2018
Read article
Uk Transport
What can be done to achieve UK transport decarbonisation by 2050?
Posted 05 Oct 2018
Read article
Hydrogen Missing Piece
Is hydrogen the missing piece in the energy jigsaw to meet 2050 targets?
Posted 05 Oct 2018
Read article
Decarbonise
How will we choose to decarbonise UK industry by 2050?
Posted 05 Oct 2018
Read article
Electricity Generate
What will it take to decarbonise electricity by 2050?
Posted 05 Oct 2018
Read article

We have refreshed Clockwork and Patchwork as part of the ETI’s legacy of insights and evidence. The scenario team now takes this work forward within the Energy Systems Catapult. We hope that this publication will once again stimulate discussion with stakeholders across the energy systems as we continue to learn together about the key options and choices facing decision-makers across the UK.

Download the 2015 report